The Pressure
Chapter 16 of The Briefing: Tom Emmer (R-MN-06), Part Five — The Breach.
As of March 2026, inflation was running at 3.5%. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%.
The Federal Reserve’s own study, released in April 2026, found that tariffs imposed since 2025 had raised core goods prices by 3.1% — explaining essentially all of the excess inflation in that category.
Tariffs are one inflationary policy. Eight others are already in motion.
Every major economic position held by the administration is inflationary. None are contractionary.
| Policy | Mechanism | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tariffs (Section 122 / 301) | Higher import costs pass through to consumer prices | Enacted; expanding |
| Tax cuts (OBBBA) | $3.1 to $4.7 trillion in deficit-financed spending power | Enacted |
| Pressure on the Federal Reserve | Cheaper borrowing increases leverage and spending | Active |
| Federal workforce cuts (238,000) | Reduced government services; private sector backfills at higher cost or gaps remain | Active |
| Mass deportation — labor | 42% of crop workers and 26% of construction lack work authorization; enforcement disrupts entire sectors | Active |
| Mass deportation — fiscal | Billions in annual Social Security contributions removed from workers legally barred from collecting | Active |
| Iran conflict — energy | Oil above $100 per barrel; energy costs ripple through every supply chain | Active |
| Iran conflict — spending | $200 billion supplemental, deficit-financed | Enacted |
| Tariff revenue struck down (Supreme Court) | Revenue shortfall widens the deficit without reducing import costs | Occurred |
Nine vectors. Zero contractionary forces from the administration. The only contractionary force in the system is the Federal Reserve — and the president is trying to remove the man who runs it.
The representative did not impose tariffs, order deportations, or threaten the Federal Reserve chair. He held the constitutional authority to check each of these actions — and did not exercise it. Separation of powers weakens.
Article I grants the legislature power over trade, spending, taxes, the armed forces, and the regulation of commerce. The president did not seize tariff authority — Congress delegated it through Section 122, Section 301, and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. When the Senate passed a bipartisan resolution to terminate the tariff emergency — 51 to 47, four Republicans crossing — the House leadership held it at the desk. No committee referral. No floor vote. Thirty-two tariff-related bills have been introduced in the 119th Congress. Zero have received a vote in the House.
The Majority Whip organized the caucus that passed the bill funding the majority of these vectors. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act — which he delivered 215 to 214 — added between $3.1 and $4.7 trillion to the deficit, funded approximately $170 billion in border and interior enforcement, and appropriated the spending that enables the federal workforce restructuring. In an Alpha News op-ed, he wrote that the bill’s border security provisions support "at least 1 million deportations per year". He voted for a separate $10 billion ICE expansion in January 2026 and sponsored the SCAM Act, which creates a pathway to denaturalize and deport naturalized citizens convicted of certain crimes.
The president has requested a $200 billion Iran supplemental. Congress holds the war powers. The 2001 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force have both been repealed. No new authorization has been voted on. Multiple War Powers resolutions — including one from a Republican — have been blocked from reaching the floor.
On the Federal Reserve, the representative sits on the House Financial Services Committee — the body with direct oversight authority over the Fed. He has introduced bills to restructure the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in four Congresses. He has made no public statement defending the independence of the Federal Reserve.
On the tariff revenue shortfall, no revenue replacement has been proposed. He has not authored or cosponsored any of the thirty-two tariff bills.
The Federal Reserve is the only institution positioned to resist these pressures. It is under active assault.
The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, warned in April 2025 that tariffs would cause "at least a temporary rise in inflation" and that the Fed was "well positioned to wait" for clarity.
The president responded on Truth Social: "Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough".
By January 2026, the Department of Justice — under U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro — had opened a criminal investigation into Powell’s Senate testimony about a headquarters renovation project. Powell released a video statement: "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President".
In March, Chief Judge James Boasberg quashed the grand jury subpoenas, concluding the investigation was "pretextual".
On April 15, 2026, the president said on Fox Business: "I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time". Powell’s chair term expires May 15. His board term runs until 2028. He has said he will not leave.
The Senate confirmation of Powell’s proposed replacement, Kevin Warsh, is stalled. Senator Thom Tillis — a Republican — refuses to vote until the DOJ probe is dropped.
The sole institutional counterweight to nine inflationary vectors is under criminal investigation, facing termination, and being replaced through a stalled nomination.
The labor force is shrinking.
Net migration went negative in 2025 — the first time in more than fifty years. The Federal Reserve chair confirmed the result in March 2026: "Effectively, there’s zero net job creation in the private sector". He attributed it to "a marked slowing in labor force supply" from the immigration decline.
Seventy percent of the hired farm workforce is foreign-born. Forty-two percent lack legal work authorization. In construction, immigrants account for 26% of the workforce — and more than half of drywall installers, plasterers, and roofers. In dairy, 51% of workers are immigrants; farms relying on immigrant labor produce 79% of the nation’s milk supply.
The Department of Labor acknowledged in an October 2025 Federal Register filing that immigration enforcement threatened "the stability of domestic food production and consumer prices".
In December 2025, federal agents conducted Operation Metro Surge across Minnesota. More than 3,700 people were arrested.
Jennie-O Turkey in Willmar reported agents arresting workers during shift changes. JBS in Worthington reported staffing shortages and production backlogs. Minneapolis reported $213 million in lost revenue across affected business corridors in one month.
Fresh vegetable prices rose 5.4% year-over-year by February 2026. Fifteen thousand farms were lost nationally in 2025. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies increased 46%.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that reversing the immigration surge would increase federal deficits by $500 billion to $900 billion over ten years. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimates that immigration restrictions lowered GDP growth by 0.75 to 1.0 percentage points in 2025 alone.
Immigrants account for approximately 60% of Minnesota’s labor force growth and 94% of the state’s net population growth over the last five years. The border enforcement was funded in the same bill as the tax cuts. The Whip whipped both.
Sources
Federal Reserve FOMC statements, press conferences, and research (including Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); BLS Consumer Price Index data; CBO Budget and Economic Outlook; USDA National Agricultural Workers Survey; DOL Federal Register (October 2025); ICE enforcement records; Congressional Record — roll call votes; Trade Act of 1974; published reporting (MPR News, Alpha News, Fox Business); Trump Truth Social posts; MN DEED and Minnesota Chamber of Commerce Foundation.